Monthly Cheer from Zillow: Has the pendulum swung too far?

Each month Zillow emails me to tell me how much my house is worth.  I write about it each time so we can all live the dream.  (All the articles here.)

Since the last time I wrote (how did I forget August?) in July, Zillow predicts my house lost another $24,000.

On the one hand, I think this might be too steep a drop.  On the other, a second automatic appraisal database agrees.  I just finished up a re-finance, and the appraisal came in at $538,000.  I didn’t particularly care, since my first mortgage is an FHA loan under $424,000.

One of my direct neighbors has the exact same townhome for sale listed at $580,000.  And another townhome currently listed at $539,000 sold late last year for $475,000.  I think they may have a bit of a wait on their hands.